This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight PPV card in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the very first ever UFC on large ESPN card and DK has some decent competitions for us with this particular Sunday card. The main GPP is that a $10 buy and $20k goes to 1st place, also there will be $100k in total prizes. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for this final contest and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 50 or so entries at the $20k decoration. I’ll also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good quantity of drama into cash games. With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like too as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is your most powerful play on the slate, in my opinion. I believe he will be the better fighter everywhere this fight moves, and he must dominate. I like locking that win in my cash match and I think he’s a good shot at getting 10x his $9.4k salary. I do expect him to be hot in tournaments so in the event that you would like to fade the possession there and try to be contrarian, I would definitely need some Luque investment in cash games. Barberena is demanding so that he could last all 3 rounds and when he can then Luque might only score from the 80s which will not win any GPPs. But, we can use an ~80-point triumph in money games because we just have to conquer half the area unlike the tournaments.
GPP play of the week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP play of the week because of the chances. A little over a week ago he had been a -255 favored and that’s what led to his high $95 price tag. Now he’s only -155 and all the value is currently on Ngannou in his $7.2k price tag. I anticipate Ngannou to be the highest owned fighter on the card and if Cain wins then he’ll kill off near half the field. Furthermore, if Cain wins he’s likely scoring over 100-points. I anticipate his ownership to really go down the more his betting line decreases and that’s what makes him a fantastic GPP play. He’s a 0-point floor, therefore that I don’t care for him as much in money game, but for GPPs we need boom or bust to try to get to that 1st place prize.
Underdog drama of the week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of the week. He is $1,400 less costly than Myles Jury on DraftKings, however he is only a +125 underdog. I think he’s a fantastic shot of winning this battle and I am choosing him to get his hands raised. I expect this to be a very close battle, but I believe Fili is going to be the fighter striking at the higher pace and that’s precisely what I think gets it done for him to the judges’ scorecards. I really don’t see Fili with 100+ stage upside but we do not really need that in his $7.4k price label. I believe he has a good shot at getting at 10x, so he is playable in most formats for me.
Fade of this week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of the week. Not because I believe she will lose, but I think have difficulty seeing her on the 20k lineup in her salary. I like the 9k range much greater than her and they all have higher ceilings with their grappling-based match programs. Andrea Lee scored well in her UFC introduction, but that is because she didn’t utilize grappling there. I don’t see her doing that in this match because I think Evans-Smith gets got the edge on the ground and she should be the one looking for takedowns. If Lee will win this battle, then she is going to need to get it done on the feet and I don’t see her having a high ceiling with no finish. The only reason to utilize her is because she is going to be super low possessed, and it’ll create your lineup , but I wouldn’t advise it.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I am 57-34 to get +188.13u (+$18,813) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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